Recently (May 2025) the European Movement (Ireland) commissioned and published the results of a poll. The poll surveyed 1,200 respondents in Ireland, both North and South. The poll was conducted by Amárach Research on behalf of the European Movement (Ireland). The responses to Question 7 (shown here) have been widely circulated on social media by supporters of a United Ireland as evidence of growing support for constitutional change on the island of Ireland. These claims were swiftly followed by some with calls for a “border poll” referendum.
Unfortunately for those supporting constitutional change in Ireland, this survey result in no way points to increasing support for Irish Unity. The question is not even about a United Ireland.
The question reads: “Would you support an United Ireland inside the European Union?” Clearly, if it was a United Ireland question then why the need for the last 4 words? Why not just ask “Would you support a United Ireland?” Why ask “Would you support a United Ireland in the EU?”
Well, that’s because it was a question about attitudes towards the EU, not a question about attitudes toward a United Ireland. The question does not ask respondents if they would vote pro UK or pro UI in a referendum. Indeed, the question even presupposes the outcome of the referendum by asking only about a UI (not the UK) within a European context, that is, a UI “within the EU.” Clearly this poll is not designed to gauge public support for constitutional change, and consequently it should not be included in any “average” polling data on the subject of a United Ireland. LucidTalk have already confirmed as much.
We know, following the work of Enda Kenny, that the EU agreed to NI being readmitted into the EU as part of a member state (Ireland), without any negotiations being necessary. As a result, in a United Ireland scenario, all 32 counties would be part of the EU. This is a big deal, and to supporters of a UI it is rightly seen as a very positive step by the EU. This question was designed to assess how the Irish people feel about that offer, not how they feel about a UI.
The European Movement (Ireland) are a body created to assess public opinion on the EU. This is clearly stated on their website (see below), they are not an organisation that conducts surveys on a United Ireland. All this poll tells us is that a United Ireland within the EU is preferred by 67% of the respndents in the North and 62% of respondents in the South. So yes, the Irish people clearly like the EU offer, but that is all we can derive from this question. It certainly is not a reflection of preferred constitutional preferences. It goes without saying that many (if not all) unionists would vote against a UI, but if having lost the referendum & faced with a stark choice some might prefer the UI within the EU. This question was about the EU, not about a UI.
Folks trying to force this United Ireland square peg into the round hole (pie chart) probably do not understand what they are looking at, or maybe the are simply being disingenuous and poking “the bears” for fun. Neither is a good look. Or maybe they were just trying to drive some traffic toward the full online report. If you select the link it might take a minute to load but be patient, it is worth the wait.
Sin é
Go raibh mile maith agat.
